If signals from an alien civilization ever reach Earth, odds are the aliens will already be dead. That assessment is the conclusion of an unpublished study posted on arXiv.

In an effort to update the 1961 Drake Equation, which estimates the number of detectable, intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way, physicist Claudio Grimaldi and colleagues calculated the area of the galaxy that should be filled with alien signals at a given time.

"A lot of literature has been devoted to estimating the different probability factors appearing in the Drake equation to guess the number of currently broadcasting civilizations in the Galaxy," Claudio Grimaldi, a scientist at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne and lead author on the paper said.

The new study considered several factors contributing to the likelihood of receiving a message and the age of any civilization that would be sending it. Like ours, that distant civilization could use radio signals to transmit messages. These signals travel quickly, at 300,000 kilometers, or roughly 186,000 miles, per second.

But these signals must cover a lot of ground—or space, rather—before they could hit another habitable planet with intelligent life on it. Our galaxy alone spans 100,000 light years across. Humans have been sending radio signals for 80 years, but the first radio waves ever sent could only have traveled a maximum of 0.001 percent of the galaxy, Science News reports. 

On top of that distance, however, is another consideration: civilizations don't last forever. In their new calculation, the researchers, which included Frank Drake, assumed that each civilization might last a maximum of 100,000 years. That means that if that civilization was sending radio signals for its entire lifetime, it would have reached 1,250 times as far a distance as Earth’s radio waves have reached. But that’s still only 1.25 percent of the galaxy.

If alien races were to send a signal, those waves would disperse and ripple through the galaxy, making spots of mixed “ghost signals.” If they reached us at all, the signals would take well over 100,000 years to arrive on Earth.

That means that by the time we receive any radiation that might have come from an alien race, that race would be long dead. There's another somewhat depressing corollary here that the researchers point out: Any signals that we send into space would not reach another form of intelligent life, if it exists, until humanity was long been extinct.

The team also calculated that the average number of E.T. signals crossing Earth at a given time should equal the number of civilizations currently transmitting — even if the civilizations we hear from aren’t the same ones presently broadcasting. Grimaldi is now working on a paper about what it means that we’ve found none so far.

Source: Newsweek
http://www.newsweek.com/alien-civilizations-sending-messages-earth-will-die-out-signal
-reaches-us-says-841863

Why won’t they just admit it?

It’s a question as old as Ufology itself, stretching all the way back to the alleged 1958 censoring of Donald Keyhoe on CBS.* What is so volatile about the flying saucer phenomenon that the public must be continually kept in the dark?

Immeasurable ink—both literal and, in this day-and-age, figurative in the form of blog and forum posts—has been spilled trying to parse the motivation behind such secrecy. Certainly, the longitudinal aspect of the conspiracy suggests there is a good reason. What other secret has the United States government managed to keep this close to their proverbial chest for this long?

I have no interest in recounting Ufologists’ various reasons why the government is so hesitant to disclose the reality of the UFO phenomenon. All suggestions are naturally filtered through a materialist framework, one that assumes the earthly powers-that-be are as omnipotent as the “extraterrestrials” themselves.  Most suggest they fear the political fallout of implicating every sitting President since Truman in the nonconsensual abduction of millions of Americans.

“UFO researchers aren’t telling the government what they know about UFOs.” This little gem is a favorite of mine I learned from Greg Bishop. It may well be true. While I certainly empathize with this witticism over the notion that “The Government” knows “The Truth About Flying Saucers” and doesn’t want “Us” to know “The Secrets,” I think if we’re being completely honest, they must know more than most Ufologists. They have the resources. They have the interest.

At the same time, the lion’s share of unexplained aerial phenomena—after adjusting for misidentifications, unorthodox aircraft tests, and misunderstood natural phenomena—are typically associated with High Strangeness in a way that undermines the materialist Extraterrestrial Hypothesis (ETH). Synchronicities, psi effects, and spiritual revelations—all of which strongly suggest we are not playing in the materialist sandbox—plague witnesses and abductees alike.**

If UFOs are indeed little green scientists in nuts-and-bolts spacecraft, there are plenty of apparent motivations behind the government’s secrecy: treaties with extraterrestrials, restricting access to exotic technology, etc. But if UFOs are metaphysical—more akin to spirit phenomena—then why keep their existence hidden?

Governments are built upon control, and, at the end of the day, the threat of physical violence upon the governed. This is Political Science 101—any violation of the law of the land, extrapolated far enough, will be met with physical consequences. It is the chief means by which government maintains order. Take, for example, something as mundane and harmless as parking tickets. Ignore enough and law enforcement will come to arrest you—resist officers, and certainly will use force to coerce you to come with them. Governments can act with impunity, including the perpetration of violence, should the system decree as much.***

Ergo, it is self-interest, the fear of physical repercussions, which keeps the citizenry in line. Yet the government is sovereign in the physical world only. As Christ said: “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s; and unto God the things that are God's."

So what would happen if that same government admitted not only that UFOs were real, but their primary reality was non-physical? That they primarily resided in a realm our forefathers would have described as “spiritual”?****

How do you govern by threat of physical violence after admitting there is more to reality than our day-to-day existence? How does one assert sovereignty over the material world after refuting materialism (which, by logical extension, such an admission would)? If reality is composed partially (or mostly) of metaphysical planes of existence, and the governing class possesses no means of asserting metaphysical consequences or punishment to violators of its laws, it is effectively neutered. Our reality would be a sham; therefore, those seeking to control us within it are a sham.

“This world is not our home, so its rulers not our rulers.”

Irrefutable evidence of alternate or expanded realities—a logical conclusion if flying saucers were revealed as metaphysical—would basically concede the right of government to govern, in a philosophical sense. I wonder if (provided the ETH is incorrect) the primary reason behind UFO secrecy is control, about keeping human beings stuck in the mire of our mundane physical reality. *****


Okay, since we’re on the subject: if Bigfoot is real, the government must know about that too, right? Setting aside the notion that they are metaphysical—in which case, Bigfoot secrecy shares the same motivation as UFO secrecy—why won’t North American governments come clean about the large, hairy hominids stalking the continent’s forests?

I submit for consideration the appalling, criminal track record North American governments, in particular the United States, has with First Nations people. Debate continues as to whether or not Bigfoot, if the species exists, is a man-like ape or an ape-like man; if the former, some have suggested disclosure of its existence would lead to an economic catastrophe, crippling the logging industry (shades of the 1990 Northern Spotted Owl controversy, where conserving the species’ habitat came into direct conflict with harvesting timber).

There is some merit to this idea, but I prefer a different theory. What if Bigfoot is an ape-like man? In that scenario, the U.S. government has failed to acknowledge a segment of the indigenous population and committed untold atrocities: selling off their land, failing to provide aid, and—if the Bigfoot community is to be believed—managing their population via cold-blooded murder.

Heck with sitting presidents authorizing alien experiments—can you imagine the political fallout from that?

*Aaron Gulyas, in his excellent podcast “The Saucer Life,” illustrated in Encounter 401 that Keyhoe’s censorship was largely exaggerated.

**I argue this point at length in my essay in UFOs: Reframing the Debate. It’s not quite required reading for this blog post, but almost.

***Though some may cry out that it sounds like I’m being a crypto-fascist, I’m not even saying this is a bad thing, really. The buck has to stop somewhere, and if people don’t have a moral imperative to abide by laws, then the government should intervene. In my uninformed opinion the problem is usually in the laws themselves, rather than their enforcement by force.

****Be it astral, interdimensional, quantum… whatever. A rose by any other name….

*****Some folks have suggested similar ideas surrounding the reality of the afterlife: that if the government acknowledged its existence, pandemonium would result from a populace now blasé about their physical existence.

Source: Weird Words and Brass Beats
https://www.joshuacutchin.com/single-post/2018/03/06/Render-Unto-Caesar-Possible-
Alternative-Motivations-Behind-Government-UFO-Bigfoot-Secrecy

A strange message that went out over the loudspeakers at Woodland Primary School in Woodland, Washington on Tuesday, scared kids and confused parents.

As 6-year-old Paisley tells it, the school day wasn't a typical one.

“It was really scary and I thought like something would happen and I thought it was real,” she said.

She's talking about a bizarre message sent over the intercom that had her and her friends freaked out and hiding under their desks.

“I was crying,” she recalled.

“Picked my daughter up from school and she comes running up to me from the bus. Dad, dad, dad, there's an octopus that's gonna smash my eyes with a hammer,” said Scott Summers, Paisley’s dad.

It was definitely not what he expected to hear from his little girl.

“Some dark creepy voice came over the loud speaker and scared them all,” said Summers.

We played a YouTube recording for Paisley that sounded similar to what multiple parents had reported their children hearing. She said the recording is what she heard come over the loudspeaker.

“This is a humoctopus. I am speaking to you from the future. Run for your lives, wretched humans. I will smash you all,” said the person recording the audio as he laughed maniacally.

After that went out over the intercom at the K-4 school, it went into lockdown and parents got a voicemail from the principal.

“I want to inform you that Woodland Primary School was put in lockdown this afternoon following a test message accidently broadcast over the school’s InformaCast public announcement system. This is our PA system. This test message was an error made as a result of the IT department testing the InformaCast announcement system at the KWRL [Kalama, Woodland, Ridgefield and La Center] bus barn building. The fictional test message created by InformaCast was intended to be a joke with a gruff voice claiming to be the humoctopus from the future who proceeded to make threats against present day humanity. Our staff immediately put the primary school into lockdown. We determined the cause of the test message and made our school staff and students aware within five minutes,” said the principal in the voicemail.

A piece of paper explaining what had happened was also sent home with students.

“I'm glad they took it serious and let parents know what was going on,” said Summers.

While the situation is making some parents chuckle, others aren't happy about it. Some people are wondering why in the world something that could be so scary to little kids is being used as a test, especially so soon after the tragedy in Florida.

The recorded alert is one that's often used as a test for alert systems. The principal, in her recorded voicemail, said the InformaCast public announcement system that the school uses created the test message.

In a statement to KGW, Woodland Public Schools said the IT department has deleted all pre-made test messages in the InformaCast system. They recorded new test messages which says: “This is a test of the public announcement system.”

Source: KGW News
http://www.kgw.com/article/news/bizarre-alert-over-school-intercom-prompts-lockdown-
in-woodland/283-528395820

- LOOK DEEPLY INTO MY GRAY MATTER DEPARTMENT -

Ex-Agent Reveals KGB Mind Control Techniques

In 1927, Jørgen Hals spoke to ghosts—or so it seemed. The Norwegian engineer was picking up radio signals from a Dutch shortwave transmitting station when he began to notice strange echoes of the original transmission.

While echoes are nothing out of the ordinary in radio transmissions, they usually occur about 1/7 of a second after the original transmission, the amount of time it takes a radio wave to travel once around the Earth.

The bizarre thing about these echoes, Hals wrote in a letter to the Norwegian physicist Carl Strømer, was that they were occurring up to three seconds after the original transmission and demonstrated a severe declension in amplitude that wouldn't be expected if the signal had merely made several trips around the Earth.

Hals didn't even attempt to explain what the signal meant. "From where this echo comes I cannot say for the present," Hals wrote to Strømer shortly after his discovery. "I can only confirm that I really heard it."

Hals' original observation of what are now known as Long-Delayed Echoes (LDEs) set off a frenzied investigation into this unsettling phenomenon in the following years, although just what accounts for these echoes still remains a mystery.

One of the more outlandish explanations of these echoes invokes an alien civilization trying to communicate with us. In 1960 Ronald Bracewell proposed in Ronald Bracewell proposed in Nature that if we were to be contacted by an autonomous artificially intelligent alien probe, the messages we received would most likely sound like the echoes reported by Hals and Strømer in 1928, the reflection of our own radio signals back to us being a highly energy efficient mode of establishing contact.

This theory was later expounded upon by science fiction author Duncan Lunan in 1973, who wrote about a 13,000 year old alien probe from the constellation Boötes hiding out in the vicinity of the moon and echoing back our messages.

"The starship hypothesis is a very interesting one, and the one which seems to be the most popular one on the internet," said Sverre Holm, a professor of signal processing at the University of Oslo. "Such theories always excite our imagination, but it builds on a very poor data set. Unfortunately I believe it says more about human imagination than anything else."

Although scientists have yet to settle on a final explanation for these mysterious echoes, Holm believes this is has less to do with a lack of scientific knowledge than a lack of willpower

A number of more plausible explanations have been proposed in the years since Hals's initial discovery, mostly notably by A.G. Shlionskiy in a 1989 article for Telecommunications and Radio Engineering. Shlionskiy proposed two basic mechanisms: signals reflected from outer space, and signals reflected terrestrially.

In the former case, there is a chance that the signals are being reflected back from the moon or some of the other planets, which might account for the staggering variety in the delays. In 1946 the first signal intentionally bounced off the moon took approximately 2.5 seconds, as did signals between Houston to the Apollo 11 crew in 1969. More recently, amateur experiments successfully bounced signals off of Venus, which resulted in a delay of about five minutes.

"The planet reflection hypothesis is literally quite far-fetched. Communications to our nearest neighbors Venus and Mars takes from five minutes and up round-trip, so with delay times in seconds or tens of seconds they can be dismissed," said Holm.

According to Holm, the most likely cosmic culprit accounting for LDEs is the collection of ionized gas clouds in Earth's Lagrange regions, which would account for echoes of between two and 10 seconds.

"Clouds of plasma are taken seriously as a possible explanation, however one would expect frequency shifts due to relative movement as well as massive attenuation in this case, and that doesn't seem to be the case," he said.

The most likely explanations for LDEs, however, are terrestrial and relatively mundane. The leading explanation attributes the echoes to a process called "ducting," wherein radio signals are guided through the Earth's ionosphere. When the radio wave reaches the other side of the Earth, it is reflected off the upper ionosphere and travels back along the same path, accounting for the delay.

"I am definitely on the side of the Earth-bound explanations," said Holm. "Especially the theory involving mode conversion in the ionosphere's plasma. It involves conversion from a radio wave to an acoustics-like wave, a plasma oscillation, and back again."

Unfortunately for Holm's favored mode conversion theory, the effects are very difficult to study outside of a laboratory and no one has been able to explain the conditions under which it occurs in the Earth's ionosphere.

"I think that with today's satellites and sensors, the mystery of LDEs could probably be solved," he said. "What's holding us back is most likely the problem is not considered important enough—it doesn't occur often enough and doesn't affect important enough forms of communications."

Perhaps the problem will only be considered important enough when the 13,000 year old aliens hiding behind the moon come to attack—until then, the mystery of the ghosts in the radio waves lives on.

Source: Motherboard
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ezpg8p/radio-ghosts-have-haunted-the-
airwaves-for-nearly-a-century